Sunday, March 21, 2010


I have read an article or two this morning that indicates this vote continues to be a nail biting horse race, even hours before the vote.

I got to thinking. What if several of undecided, including the "leaning yes" representatives calculate a midnight hour shift in their calculations of victory in November.

The general conviction of the dems voting for it believe that while the bill is unpopular now, it's b/c no one really understands it, and soon they'll start receiving the benefits and be so happy. Also, they believe they'll be able to move on to other more popular topics like jobs etc.

But, what if it doesn't pass? What if they don't have the 216 votes, even without the undecided vote in question? Then, the second half of the dems rationalization won't come into play. The reps who vote "yes" will continue to be chastised and kicked out in November b/c the people will never get to see "how good it is for them." If they don't have 216 firm votes, is the risk of the bill actually losing worth the political cost, when you're wavering anyways? You can ardently believe the rationalization that folks will forget and forgive by November when they see the "fruit" of it, but if us people never see the "fruit", it's political suicide.

I might contend that is political suicide to vote "yes", regardless, but the calculation of political cost would be a bit different if an undecided thought that they weren't the deciding vote and it was likely to actually not pass.

And, regarding "deciding votes," I read that Pelosi said behind closed doors that they actually need 217 votes, b/c none of the undecideds want to be the "deciding vote."

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